Stat Lab

Paste the numbers. Chop them up. Find the edge.

Drop in past totals, or a CSV straight from a spreadsheet with whatever columns you have. The lab builds a fair line, splits the data any way it can, and tells you whether −110 is worth it.

Data

AnalyzePosted line

Chop it up17 of 17

Window

Date · Month

Opp

Site

Sample half

Test a line

LineOdds

Leave the line blank to use the fair line (the median, rounded to the half point).

Fair line

44.0

Median 44.0 · mean 44.8

Spread (σ)

8.9

Middle 50%: 39.0–51.0

Recent form

42.4

Last 5 · last 10 44.8

Trend

−0.20

per game · R² 0.01 (noise)

Splits

Home runs +6.4 points hotter than Away (47.8 vs 41.4) — fair line 47 vs 39.

Split by

Site	n	Avg	vs all	Fair	Over 44	vs posted
Home	9	47.8	+3.0	47	6–2–1	6–3 (+2.1)
Away	8	41.4	−3.4	39	2–6	2–6 (−4.4)

Over rate at 44

At 44

n = 17 · range 28–62

over 44−1.0%EV

History: 50%; 8 of 16
Normal model: 51%
Fair odds: -107

under 44−7.6%EV

History: 50%; 8 of 16
Normal model: 44%
Fair odds: +107

EV averages the historical hit rate and the normal model, at -110. Positive means the price is better than the data says it should be. 1 past result(s) landed exactly on 44 (push).

Distribution

Bars left of the line are unders, right are overs. The dashed curve is what a normal distribution with this mean and spread would expect — where the bars leave the curve, the data has a shape the model doesn't.

Game by game

Each result in order, the 5-game rolling average, and the least-squares trend.

OverUnder5-game averageTrend

Against the posted lines

Comparing each result to the line that was actually posted for that game.

O/U record

8–9

Overs hit 47%

Avg. vs line

−1.0

Lines set too high

Avg. miss

6.1

How far off the book is, on average

Blind-bet result

+0.18u

Betting every under at −110