Insights
Hidden insights
Written automatically from every graded pick, and updated as each week is graded. Each one is labeled by how much weight it can bear.
The group loves favorites. Big ones burn it.
59% of all picks went on favorites. On spreads of 6 or more, underdogs covered 25 of 37 while the group still backed the favorite 63% of the time. A fair coin produces a split at least this lopsided, in either direction, about 5% of the time.
The Crowd entry would have won 1 of 8 weeks.
Taking the group's majority side on every game scored 15, 11, 8, 10, 13, 8, 9, 10 against winning scores of 14, 12, 14, 16, 15, 12, 13, 12. Tied votes carry no information, which is when the Crowd struggles.
Unanimous picks are 7–7.
When everyone agrees, it's usually a heavy favorite, and the spread already prices that in. Consensus is not a lock.
Winning scores beat luck in 2 of 8 weeks.
A coin-flipper averages 11 ± 3 points. In fields this size, pure chance produces a winning score of about 13.0–15.7; the real winners scored 14 and 12 and 14 and 16 and 15 and 12 and 13 and 12. Separating skill from luck takes a full season.
Confidence points aren't adding value yet.
1-pointers hit 50%, 2-pointers 52% and 3-pointers 44% (25 of 57). If players could spot their best games, the 3-point rate would stand well above the rest.
John M. and Mark think alike.
They picked the same side 81% of the time across 16 shared games: one opinion counted twice. Max and Breeze agree only 35% of the time, which is the kind of independence that makes a crowd smart.
Do big favorites cover?
How often the favorite covered by spread size, next to how often the group picked the favorite.
Does agreeing make us right?
How often the group's majority side covered, by how lopsided the vote was (full entries only). Faded bars are thin samples.
The Crowd vs. the winner
A ghost entry built from the group's majority side on each game, with its biggest points on the most lopsided votes.
Are confidence points working?
Everyone's picks combined, by the points put on them. If people can spot their best games, the 3-point bar should stand tallest.
How everyone picks
"With the room" and "Against the room" compare each pick with what everyone else took on that game. Favorite share is how often a player lays the points.
| Player | With the room | Against the room | On favorites | On underdogs | Favorite share | 3-pointers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Cashion | 5–5 50% | 2–4 33% | 3–4 43% | 4–5 44% | 44% | 0–1 0% |
| John Lowe | 26–23 53% | 10–19 34% | 27–33 45% | 14–14 50% | 68% | 3–3 50% |
| John McCabe | 6–8 43% | 8–8 50% | 10–13 43% | 4–3 57% | 77% | 1–1 50% |
| Max Breshears | 13–16 45% | 9–18 33% | 12–18 40% | 13–18 42% | 49% | 1–4 20% |
| Phil Dauma | 33–29 53% | 22–13 63% | 34–29 54% | 24–15 62% | 62% | 3–4 43% |
| Regan Hill | 23–21 52% | 16–17 48% | 25–24 51% | 21–19 53% | 55% | 2–4 33% |
| Ryan McCarthy | 18–13 58% | 9–6 60% | 22–21 51% | 11–5 69% | 73% | 3–3 50% |
| Sam Schrader | 31–26 54% | 26–28 48% | 31–28 53% | 32–27 54% | 50% | 4–4 50% |
| Breeze | 16–17 48% | 13–9 59% | 16–19 46% | 15–9 63% | 59% | 2–2 50% |
| Matt | 14–15 48% | 7–8 47% | 15–19 44% | 7–4 64% | 76% | 2–1 67% |
| Mark Trella | 12–11 52% | 10–10 50% | 14–16 47% | 8–5 62% | 70% | 0–1 0% |
| Hayden Cashion | 19–14 58% | 23–22 51% | 17–17 50% | 28–23 55% | 40% | 3–3 50% |
| John McCabe | 10–7 59% | 3–9 25% | 9–12 43% | 4–4 50% | 72% | 1–1 50% |
Who thinks alike?
How often each pair picked the same side on games they both played. Pairs who nearly always agree are really one opinion counted twice.
| Hayden C. | John L. | John M. | Max | Phil | Regan | Ryan | Sam | Breeze | Matt | Mark | Hayden C. | John M. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden C. | — | 40 | 75 | 69 | 56 | 56 | |||||||
| John L. | — | 50 | 51 | 61 | 52 | 78 | 59 | 59 | 77 | 58 | 47 | 67 | |
| John M. | 40 | 50 | — | 42 | 52 | 60 | 67 | 65 | 56 | 50 | 81 | 44 | |
| Max | 75 | 51 | 42 | — | 53 | 45 | 58 | 46 | 35 | 45 | 60 | 45 | 47 |
| Phil | 69 | 61 | 52 | 53 | — | 61 | 59 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 53 | 53 | 60 |
| Regan | 56 | 52 | 60 | 45 | 61 | — | 53 | 52 | 53 | 58 | 55 | 56 | 60 |
| Ryan | 78 | 67 | 58 | 59 | 53 | — | 52 | 61 | 68 | 73 | 50 | 60 | |
| Sam | 56 | 59 | 65 | 46 | 62 | 52 | 52 | — | 57 | 45 | 38 | 45 | 47 |
| Breeze | 59 | 56 | 35 | 62 | 53 | 61 | 57 | — | 68 | 60 | 52 | 50 | |
| Matt | 77 | 50 | 45 | 62 | 58 | 68 | 45 | 68 | — | 64 | 40 | 63 | |
| Mark | 58 | 81 | 60 | 53 | 55 | 73 | 38 | 60 | 64 | — | 47 | 55 | |
| Hayden C. | 47 | 44 | 45 | 53 | 56 | 50 | 45 | 52 | 40 | 47 | — | 37 | |
| John M. | 67 | 47 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 47 | 50 | 63 | 55 | 37 | — |
The room's strongest calls
Games where the group was most one-sided, and how they turned out.