The Number.
Negative means Vikings is favored. Your number is the spread you think is right; leave it blank to see the market on its own.
Break-even at -110 is 52.4%. The market's number is right on average, so you need about a point of real edge before −110 pays.
6,999 regular-season games, 1999–2026, from nflverse. For the number you enter, the model takes every game that closed at that spread and reads off what actually happened — so the piles on 3 and 7 are real, not assumed. Win probability also shows the classic normal model (σ = 13.2 points).
How Vikings +3 games end
Final margin from Vikings's side in 1,118 games that closed at this number. Green covers, red doesn't, gray is a push. The tall bars are the key numbers.
What a half point is worth
Vikings at each line nearby. The jump across 3 or 7 is why books charge 25 and 15 cents for those half points.
| Line | Cover | Push | vs market | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1 | 41.7% | 2.6% | −5.8 pts | −17.8 |
| +1.5 | 44.3% | 0.0% | −3.2 pts | −15.5 |
| +2 | 44.3% | 3.2% | −3.2 pts | −12.3 |
| +2.5 | 47.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 pts | −9.3 |
| +3market | 47.5% | 9.2% | — | −0.1 |
| +3.5 | 56.7% | 0.0% | +9.2 pts | +8.3 |
| +4 | 56.7% | 3.0% | +9.2 pts | +11.2 |
| +4.5 | 59.7% | 0.0% | +12.2 pts | +13.9 |
| +5 | 59.7% | 1.9% | +12.2 pts | +15.8 |
Six-point teaser
Move this side six points in its favor. Worth it when it crosses both 3 and 7 and the price is right; at −120 for two legs you need each leg to hit about 74%.
A two-leg teaser at −120 breaks even when both legs hit 74% of the time; at −110 it's 72%. Legs that cross 3 and 7 — favorites of 7.5 to 8.5 and underdogs of 1.5 to 2.5 — are the classic candidates.