The Number.
Negative means Bears is favored. Your number is the spread you think is right; leave it blank to see the market on its own.
Break-even at -110 is 52.4%. The market's number is right on average, so you need about a point of real edge before −110 pays.
6,999 regular-season games, 1999–2026, from nflverse. For the number you enter, the model takes every game that closed at that spread and reads off what actually happened — so the piles on 3 and 7 are real, not assumed. Win probability also shows the classic normal model (σ = 13.2 points).
How Bears -6 games end
Final margin from Bears's side in 944 games that closed within 0.5 of this number. Green covers, red doesn't, gray is a push. The tall bars are the key numbers.
What a half point is worth
Bears at each line nearby. The jump across 3 or 7 is why books charge 25 and 15 cents for those half points.
| Line | Cover | Push | vs market | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | 51.6% | 3.7% | +5.7 pts | +2.2 |
| -4.5 | 51.6% | 0.0% | +5.7 pts | −1.5 |
| -5 | 49.5% | 2.1% | +3.6 pts | −3.4 |
| -5.5 | 49.5% | 0.0% | +3.6 pts | −5.6 |
| -6market | 45.9% | 3.6% | — | −8.8 |
| -6.5 | 45.9% | 0.0% | 0.0 pts | −12.4 |
| -7 | 40.5% | 5.4% | −5.4 pts | −17.3 |
| -7.5 | 40.5% | 0.0% | −5.4 pts | −22.7 |
| -8 | 37.7% | 2.8% | −8.2 pts | −25.3 |
Six-point teaser
Move this side six points in its favor. Worth it when it crosses both 3 and 7 and the price is right; at −120 for two legs you need each leg to hit about 74%.
A two-leg teaser at −120 breaks even when both legs hit 74% of the time; at −110 it's 72%. Legs that cross 3 and 7 — favorites of 7.5 to 8.5 and underdogs of 1.5 to 2.5 — are the classic candidates.