The Number.
Negative means Colts is favored. Your number is the spread you think is right; leave it blank to see the market on its own.
Break-even at -110 is 52.4%. The market's number is right on average, so you need about a point of real edge before −110 pays.
6,999 regular-season games, 1999–2026, from nflverse. For the number you enter, the model takes every game that closed at that spread and reads off what actually happened — so the piles on 3 and 7 are real, not assumed. Win probability also shows the classic normal model (σ = 13.2 points).
How Colts +4.5 games end
Final margin from Colts's side in 740 games that closed within 0.5 of this number. Green covers, red doesn't, gray is a push. The tall bars are the key numbers.
What a half point is worth
Colts at each line nearby. The jump across 3 or 7 is why books charge 25 and 15 cents for those half points.
| Line | Cover | Push | vs market | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +2.5 | 35.7% | 0.0% | −14.1 pts | −31.9 |
| +3 | 35.7% | 10.8% | −14.1 pts | −21.1 |
| +3.5 | 46.5% | 0.0% | −3.2 pts | −11.3 |
| +4 | 46.5% | 3.2% | −3.2 pts | −8.0 |
| +4.5market | 49.7% | 0.0% | — | −5.1 |
| +5 | 49.7% | 1.8% | 0.0 pts | −3.3 |
| +5.5 | 51.5% | 0.0% | +1.8 pts | −1.7 |
| +6 | 51.5% | 3.9% | +1.8 pts | +2.2 |
| +6.5 | 55.4% | 0.0% | +5.7 pts | +5.8 |
Six-point teaser
Move this side six points in its favor. Worth it when it crosses both 3 and 7 and the price is right; at −120 for two legs you need each leg to hit about 74%.
A two-leg teaser at −120 breaks even when both legs hit 74% of the time; at −110 it's 72%. Legs that cross 3 and 7 — favorites of 7.5 to 8.5 and underdogs of 1.5 to 2.5 — are the classic candidates.