The Number.
Negative means Chiefs is favored. Your number is the spread you think is right; leave it blank to see the market on its own.
Break-even at -110 is 52.4%. The market's number is right on average, so you need about a point of real edge before −110 pays.
6,999 regular-season games, 1999–2026, from nflverse. For the number you enter, the model takes every game that closed at that spread and reads off what actually happened — so the piles on 3 and 7 are real, not assumed. Win probability also shows the classic normal model (σ = 13.2 points).
How Chiefs -9.5 games end
Final margin from Chiefs's side in 502 games that closed within 0.5 of this number. Green covers, red doesn't, gray is a push. The tall bars are the key numbers.
What a half point is worth
Chiefs at each line nearby. The jump across 3 or 7 is why books charge 25 and 15 cents for those half points.
| Line | Cover | Push | vs market | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7.5 | 51.2% | 0.0% | +4.6 pts | −2.3 |
| -8 | 47.8% | 3.4% | +1.2 pts | −5.3 |
| -8.5 | 47.8% | 0.0% | +1.2 pts | −8.7 |
| -9 | 46.6% | 1.2% | 0.0 pts | −9.8 |
| -9.5market | 46.6% | 0.0% | — | −11.0 |
| -10 | 41.0% | 5.6% | −5.6 pts | −16.1 |
| -10.5 | 41.0% | 0.0% | −5.6 pts | −21.7 |
| -11 | 39.4% | 1.6% | −7.2 pts | −23.1 |
| -11.5 | 39.4% | 0.0% | −7.2 pts | −24.7 |
Six-point teaser
Move this side six points in its favor. Worth it when it crosses both 3 and 7 and the price is right; at −120 for two legs you need each leg to hit about 74%.
A two-leg teaser at −120 breaks even when both legs hit 74% of the time; at −110 it's 72%. Legs that cross 3 and 7 — favorites of 7.5 to 8.5 and underdogs of 1.5 to 2.5 — are the classic candidates.